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Research In Motion (RIM) has seen impressive growth in the enterprise-oriented smartphone market during recent quarters. The BlackBerry maker’s bullish performance on Wall Street underpins the firm’s 70% smartphone share on AT&T and 107% year-on-year growth as of Q1 2008. But, Credit Suisse analyst Kulbinder Garcha believes RIM’s stock price is significantly over-valued. Why? RIM is losing AT&T share to the iconic Apple iPhone.

RIM has traditionally seen their BlackBerry smartphones being pushed hard by the largest GSM carrier in the US, AT&T. Research In Motion saw their BlackBerry handsets comprising 70% of AT&T’s smartphone sales in June, and is likely to see a 55% share among smartphones on Verizon’s network in the quarter ending December 2008. That may all change.

AT&T has been putting significant marketing resources behind Apple’s new iPhone 3G handsets. The iPhone 3G is still selling in record numbers three weeks after its initial launch, and AT&T’s promotional shift to the iPhone 3G could prove to eat in to RIM’s BlackBerry sales figures. With 25%-30% of BlackBerry revenue tied to AT&T’s network, RIM could see a significant drop in future sales of BlackBerry smartphones - particularly the BlackBerry Bold - as the leading US wireless carrier shifts its focus to the more highly marketed iPhone 3G and the smartphone market as a whole cuts sales prices and experiences production cost increases.

Still, all is not lost in Waterloo. RIM is slated to release their own all-touchscreen device, the BlackBerry Thunder, to cash in on the touchscreen revolution that’s rolling though the smartphone industry. But, it remains to be seen if RIM can both refine their touch UI to compete with the iPhone 3G and launch the device in a time to give Apple, Samsung, HTC, and Sony Ericsson a run for their money.

Labels: Blackberry

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